Are We Trying to Paint a Gloomy Picture?
It is obvious that the Year 2020 began its decision by “Paralyzing the World’s Economy” pushed nations all over the world to combat an invisible enemy – The COVID-19. As per the International Monetary Fund, the Global Economy is anticipated bear witness to a unfavorable development on the GDP by 3% whereas superior economies are anticipated to be badly hit by 6.1% in 2020, rising market / creating economies are anticipated be the least impacted at -1%.
These phrases have develop into buzzwords throughout the Covid-19 Pemic: Work from Home, Lockdown, Supply Chain Disruption, Force Majeure, Market Crash, Negative Oil Prices, Quarantine, Hydroxychloroquine, Ventilator, Relief Package, Social Distancing, Physical Distancing, and many others. These phrases should not solely altering our day-to-day lives but in addition has pushed governments enterprise entities to assume act otherwise to realize the brand new normalcy.
The interval from 1st Jan 2020 to 22nd May 2020 could be break up into two phases, specifically: Phase 1 – (“Unknown Unknowns”) masking 1st Jan to 31st March, Phase 2 – masking from 1st April 2020 to 22nd May 2020. As we entered Phase 1, all the pieces was unknown unknowns (i.e. traits of virus, its affect each on human / economic system and many others. have been all little or no identified) which then resulted into the sky-is-falling state of affairs, buyers began transferring from flight to security. Globally, inventory markets plunged on worry of the unknown unknowns, or the sky-is-falling fallacy.
The graph beneath reveals the motion on the world’s prime 7 inventory market indexes of 5 nations viz. US, India, UK, Japan Hongkong:
During Phase 1, the inventory market index plummeted by 30% on common amidst coronavirus fears because the buyers have been cautious of worldwide financial prospects in addition to restoration not being in sight.
Phase 2 began from 1st April 2020 the place the inventory index surged by 25% from its lowest degree (i.e. in 2020.03.23) inside 32 buying and selling days. On the opposite h, airline firms all over the world haven’t proven any indicators of restoration proceed its downward slide in market worth. The prime 10 airline firms from USA, Australia, France, Germany, UK, Hong Kong, India have misplaced greater than 50% of their market worth throughout this era.
The inventory market has been the most effective indicators as properly a future indictor of what buyers have been considering on the longer term outlook of firms how these firms will likely be performing within the foreseeable future. This could also be thought of one of many indicators of a V-shape financial restoration additionally bearing in mind that every one four-prior pemics (i.e. the 1918 Spanish Flu, 1958 H2N2 “Asian Flu’, 1968 H3N2 “Hong Kong Flu” 2002 SARS) have been all noticed have a V-shaped restoration.
In phrases of the commodity market, crude oil costs began the 12 months on a excessive notice reached its peak at $63.27 a barrel on 6th January, however plunged into unfavorable territory i.e. -$2.72 a barrel as dem for crude fell sharply. It has rebounded to $33.56 since. The dem for gas is anticipated to extend owing to loosening of lockdowns as nations worldwide are slowly getting again to enterprise altering their enterprise fashions so as to survive within the new regular state of affairs.
Undoubtedly, Nepal shouldn’t be remoted due to the worldwide financial slowdown or financial paralysis as a result of steady lockdowns. At the identical time, the nation must preserve its eyes ears open see how briskly the worst affected nations resembling China others are getting again to their toes to the brand new regular. The dem for numerous different items providers internationally have began to surge. Meanwhile, we, as a nation, are nonetheless closing our eyes from the sunshine on the finish of the tunnel investing all our effort power in attempting to color a really gloomy image.
Apart from numerous hidden agendas, the underlining intentions for closing our very personal eyes on the details figures so as to acquire an enormous reduction package deal from the federal government, is a giant ask, contemplating the nation’s present financial circumstances. In order to withst the storm, the enterprise entities in Nepal additionally have to study from how the opposite nations have efficiently modified its methods to emerge as a winner on submit COVID period.
The creator is DCEO – Civil Bank Limited & Visiting Faculty KUSOM
Disclaimer: The views expressed within the textual content belong solely to the creator, to not creator’s employer or related establishments.